Summary
This document is a research report that outlines five macroeconomic themes anticipated for 2025, focusing on the implications of monetary policy, fiscal sustainability, globalization, and geopolitical risks. The report discusses the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will halt its rate-cutting cycle at a higher terminal rate due to stronger growth and inflationary pressures. It highlights concerns regarding rising global government debt, particularly in the US, and the potential impacts of fiscal policies under the incoming administration. The report also examines the changing dynamics of globalization, identifying both winners and losers among emerging markets, particularly in light of US trade policies. Additionally, it addresses the instability of potential ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East, emphasizing the challenges of achieving lasting peace in these regions. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of these themes, supported by data and forecasts, to inform professional and institutional investors.
