Global Insolvency Outlook for 2024-2026

This technical report from Allianz Research outlines the projected trends in global business insolvencies for the years 2024 to 2026. It highlights an expected acceleration in business bankruptcies, with a year-to-date increase of 9% in 2024. The report anticipates that by the end of 2024, the Global Insolvency Index will rise by 11%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in many countries, particularly in Western Europe. The sectors most affected include construction, retail, and services, with large insolvencies reaching record highs. The report also forecasts a further increase in insolvencies in 2025, driven by slowing economic growth and geopolitical tensions, before stabilizing in 2026. Specific country projections indicate varying trends, with the US expected to see a 12% rise in bankruptcies in 2025. The report concludes that while lower interest rates may provide some relief, significant financial challenges will persist, particularly for highly leveraged sectors.