Geoeconomic Implications of US-China Trade Relations

This report outlines the geoeconomic dynamics between the US and China, particularly in the context of a potential renewed trade war. It details the projected impacts on global trade growth, estimating a reduction of up to 2.4 percentage points in 2026 should tariffs increase significantly. The report highlights the economic stakes for both nations, with China and the EU facing substantial export risks. It explains the contrasting economic strategies of the US and China, with the US focusing on protecting national interests and securing alliances, while China employs a trade-centric approach. The document also discusses the implications for the EU, which faces challenges in aligning its economic interests with the US while managing its relations with China. Additionally, it presents insights into the evolving supply chain complexities and the emergence of next-generation trade hubs in Asia and other regions, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptation in a changing global trade landscape.