Global Insolvency Outlook 2026-27 Analysis

This technical report by Allianz Research presents an analysis of the global insolvency outlook for the years 2026 and 2027. It outlines the impact of trade rerouting and energy deflation on corporate insolvencies, particularly in the context of recent tariff implementations by the Trump administration. The report details how these tariffs have reshaped global trade flows without triggering a surge in US insolvencies, as large firms have been cushioned by price moderation from foreign exporters. Despite a modest overall increase in insolvencies, the report anticipates a catch-up effect in the coming quarters. It also discusses the potential risks for countries heavily reliant on exports, predicting significant increases in insolvencies in nations like Canada, France, and Spain. Furthermore, the report highlights cyclical tailwinds that could shift to headwinds, affecting the insolvency outlook due to economic growth, financial conditions, and fiscal policies. The analysis concludes with projections of rising global business insolvencies in the upcoming years.