Global Trade Growth and Economic Outlook Report

This report outlines the current state of global trade and economic conditions, focusing on the anticipated impacts of a renewed trade war and monetary policy adjustments. It predicts a slowdown in global trade growth, estimating increases of 2.8% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, with significant downward revisions in value terms. The report details how companies are frontloading shipments in anticipation of higher tariffs, particularly from China, which has seen a notable rise in exports. Additionally, it discusses the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts amidst persistent inflationary pressures and rising unemployment. The report highlights a record number of corporate insolvencies in 2024, driven by economic uncertainty and sector-specific challenges. The analysis emphasizes the potential for a domino effect on suppliers and subcontractors due to these insolvencies, as well as the ongoing negotiations for free-trade agreements that may influence future trade dynamics.