Simulation Model for COVID-19 Vaccine Logistics

This technical report presents a simulation model developed to assess the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on vaccine logistics, the spread rate of SARS-CoV-2 variants, and the timeline for achieving herd immunity. The study utilizes an extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model based on System Dynamics to predict the duration required to reach 70% herd immunity, depending on various vaccine supply scenarios. The model was implemented using AnyLogic 8.7.2 and analyzed for Turkey's population of approximately 83 million. Results indicate that with a monthly supply of 15 million vaccines, the target of 70% herd immunity can be reached in 161 days, while 30 million vaccines would achieve this in 117 days, and 40 million vaccines in 98 days. The report emphasizes the importance of effective vaccine distribution and administration strategies to mitigate the pandemic's impact and highlights the need for dynamic modeling to support health policy decisions.