2026 Credit Outlook: From Scarcity to Selection

This document is a report that outlines the 2026 credit outlook, emphasizing the transition of credit markets into a buyer's market. It describes how economic growth in the US is expected to support corporate and consumer fundamentals while the technical backdrop has shifted towards higher supply. The report details the significant role of AI-related investment in increasing credit supply, with projections indicating over $2.7 trillion of cumulative AI-related spending from 2025 to 2029. It also highlights the resurgence of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as a factor reinforcing the supply backdrop, driven by lower financing costs and ample private equity resources. The document notes that the current cycle is characterized by dispersion rather than distress, with economic growth concentrating among higher-income consumers and AI-exposed corporates. The report concludes by discussing the implications of these trends for credit markets and the opportunities they present for disciplined buyers of credit.