Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy

This research article examines the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources and the storage requirements necessary for grid reliability and resource adequacy. It evaluates climate change models and regional data to assess changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed within a specific service area in the U.S. southwest. The study finds that under extreme climate change scenarios, projected wind power may decrease by approximately 13% due to reduced wind speeds, while solar power may decrease by about 4% due to decreased irradiance and increased temperatures. The article also discusses the uncertainties associated with these climate-induced changes and evaluates battery storage performance in relation to temperature increases and capacity fade. The findings indicate that the annual loss of load expectation (LOLE) could rise significantly, necessitating increased battery storage to maintain desired reliability levels. The study aims to provide a probabilistic framework for evaluating these uncertainties in energy resources and storage.