Hurricane Prediction Using Control Charts

This technical report examines the use of control charts to predict hurricane activity based on historical data. It focuses on the analysis of tropical storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic over the past 100 years, utilizing data from the National Hurricane Center. The report outlines the methodology of employing individuals (X-mR) control charts to analyze the number of tropical storms per year, identifying periods of stability and inconsistency in the data. The analysis reveals that the average number of tropical storms per year is 11.6, with control limits established to define normal variation. The report further discusses predictions for the 2023 hurricane season, aligning these predictions with forecasts from NOAA, which estimates a near-normal season with 12 to 17 named storms. Additionally, the report summarizes similar analyses for hurricanes and major hurricanes, providing a comprehensive view of historical patterns and future expectations.