Forecast Accuracy Improvement at Sarasota County Government

This case study outlines the implementation of Forecast Pro XE by Sarasota County Government to enhance revenue forecasting accuracy. The Office of Financial Planning faced challenges due to inconsistent forecasting methodologies among various departments, resulting in significant inaccuracies. To address this, Budget/Management Analyst Robert Kozash developed regression-based forecasting models for different revenue streams, including gas taxes and property taxes. He created a comprehensive database of nearly 50 economic indicators that influence tax revenue, which were analyzed over a five-year period. The forecasts generated using Forecast Pro consistently achieved an accuracy within 2.5% of actual revenues. Additionally, the software's graphing capabilities facilitated the creation of presentation-quality reports, aiding in the visualization of model performance. The successful application of these models has garnered recognition for Sarasota County Government, leading to an endorsement from an independent economic consulting firm for broader use across Florida counties.