AI Productivity Implications for Economic Growth

This document is a transcript of the Research @ Citi Podcast, Episode 48, which focuses on the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) for productivity and economic growth. The discussion features Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research, and Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist at Citi. They explore the current state of AI productivity, noting that while there has been significant investment in AI technologies, the anticipated productivity gains have not yet materialized in the data. The conversation references a Must C report led by Sheets, which analyzes productivity trends and the concept of the productivity J-curve, indicating that the benefits of AI investment may take time to manifest. The podcast also discusses historical comparisons to past technological revolutions, emphasizing the rapid diffusion of AI technologies compared to earlier innovations. The implications for financial markets are addressed, suggesting potential impacts on equity prices and inflation, while also highlighting risks associated with slower-than-expected productivity gains.