House Prices and Consumer Confidence Trends Report

This report provides an analysis of recent trends in house prices and consumer confidence as of June 2025. It details that benchmark house price indexes showed unexpected weakness in April, with further declines noted in May. Existing home sales were described as anemic, with a notable increase in the listings-to-sales ratio, reaching its highest level since 2016. Additionally, consumer confidence experienced a decline, attributed to a weakening perception of the job market, which fell to a post-pandemic low. The report outlines the Federal Reserve's stance, with Chair Powell advocating a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates, despite some governors pushing for a rate cut. The document also discusses the conflicting economic data influencing Fed policy, including rising input costs due to tariffs and expectations for fiscal policy changes in 2026. Comerica forecasts that the federal funds target rate will remain unchanged in the latter half of 2025 as the Fed assesses the economic landscape.