Rogue Wave Indicators from Global Models and Buoy Data

This study is a technical report that analyzes rogue wave occurrences using data from CDIP wave buoys and model-based estimates from ERA5 reanalysis and ECMWF CY47R1 hindcast. It discusses the formation mechanisms of rogue waves, which pose significant risks to maritime operations. The report highlights that models tend to underestimate extreme wave events due to spectral smoothing and spatial averaging. A key finding indicates that rogue waves are often preceded by a notable decrease in crest-trough correlation, followed by a rapid increase, suggesting energy focusing mechanisms are critical. The report emphasizes the need for improved modeling by integrating dynamic wave field parameters and high-resolution numerical models to enhance global rogue wave risk assessments. Additionally, it evaluates the effectiveness of crest-trough correlation as an indicator of rogue wave formation, proposing that its temporal variability may provide more reliable predictions than its static value. The findings aim to bridge observational and modeled perspectives of rogue wave events.