Quarterly Global Economic Outlook for Q3 2026

This document is a report detailing the global economic outlook for the third quarter of 2026. It outlines the projected slowdown in global growth to 2.5% from 2.8% in 2025, while discussing the easing of downside risks due to ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which have reduced the immediate risk of an energy shock. The report highlights that while oil prices have stabilized, inflation risks remain, with a forecast of 4.0% global inflation in 2026. It notes the potential impact of El Niño on agricultural output and the high levels of public debt that limit central banks' ability to adopt accommodative policies. The document also discusses the cautious recovery expected for businesses, emphasizing the risks posed by delayed pass-through of earlier cost increases and tighter credit conditions. Opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from lower oil prices and AI-related investments, suggesting a complex landscape of risks and opportunities for various industries.