2025 U.S. State Emissions Gaps Analysis

This technical report presents an analysis of the emissions gaps for U.S. states in relation to their commitments under the Paris Agreement. The report assesses the current emissions trajectories of states compared to the necessary reductions to meet climate goals. It highlights that the emissions gap among states is larger than previously estimated, with significant implications for climate policy. The analysis indicates that ambitious state-level policies are crucial for closing these gaps, particularly in climate leadership states participating in the U.S. Climate Alliance. Key findings reveal that the projected emissions gap for these states is expected to increase, driven by the repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act and other federal policy rollbacks. The report also discusses the importance of decarbonizing various sectors, including power, transportation, and industry, to achieve overall emissions reductions. Additionally, it emphasizes the need for states to implement robust pollution control measures to mitigate the impacts of federal inaction.