ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Q1 2026

The document is a report detailing the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2026. It outlines expectations for headline HICP inflation, which remained unchanged from previous forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with a projected decrease from 2.1% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026. Core inflation expectations, measured by HICP excluding energy and food, also remained stable. Real GDP growth expectations were revised slightly upward for 2026 to 1.2%, with unchanged projections for subsequent years. Unemployment rate expectations remained consistent for 2026 and 2027, with a slight downward revision for the longer term. The report also assesses the expected impacts of the expanded EU Emissions Trading System (ETS2) and defence/fiscal spending on inflation and GDP growth, indicating a positive net risk balance for inflation and a negative impact on GDP growth. Uncertainty surrounding inflation and GDP expectations has decreased, although it remains above pre-pandemic levels.