ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Q2 2026

The document is a report detailing the findings of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2026. It outlines significant revisions in inflation expectations, particularly for headline HICP inflation, which was revised upwards to 2.7% for 2026, with longer-term expectations remaining stable at 2.0%. The report also notes upward revisions for core inflation expectations in the near term. Additionally, real GDP growth expectations were revised downwards to 1.0% for 2026, influenced by anticipated negative impacts from the ongoing war in the Middle East. Unemployment rate expectations remained unchanged. The survey included special questions regarding the expected impacts of the conflict, indicating limited indirect effects on inflation and wage growth, primarily concentrated in 2026 and 2027. The balance of risks for inflation has shifted slightly to the upside, reflecting increased uncertainty. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive analysis of economic expectations amidst geopolitical tensions.