Inflation and Tariff Impact Analysis for Small Businesses

This technical report presents an analysis of the impact of inflation and tariff changes on U.S. small businesses during the first half of 2025. It utilizes data from the Fiserv Small Business Index® to evaluate performance metrics such as sales, foot traffic, and consumer spending trends from January to June 2025. The report notes that while inflation rates fluctuated, with a decrease from 3.0% in January to 2.3% in April, a subsequent rise to 2.7% in June indicated ongoing pricing pressures. Small businesses experienced a decline in sales and foot traffic, particularly in the food services sector, which saw significant reductions in customer visits. The report also discusses how tariffs have influenced consumer behavior and pricing strategies, with some businesses facing challenges in passing increased costs onto consumers. Overall, the findings highlight the complex interplay between inflation, tariffs, and small business performance in a changing economic landscape.