Economic Indicators from Small Business Data Analysis

This report is an examination of the relationships between various economic indicators, specifically focusing on the dynamics between Wall Street, Main Street, and Small Street, with an emphasis on small business activity. It utilizes U.S. national data from 1990 to 2025, including real-time entrepreneurial indicators from GoDaddy, to assess how effectively traditional and novel indicators reflect economic conditions experienced by households and workers. The analysis is structured around four hypotheses regarding the predictive power of financial markets and small business indicators. The report presents findings that stock market returns are statistically related to real economic activity, albeit weakly, while small business formation is more closely linked to macroeconomic dynamics. Additionally, GoDaddy’s data provides timely insights into local small business dynamics, suggesting that small business activity serves as a stronger indicator of economic health compared to stock market performance. Overall, the research highlights the interconnectedness of financial markets, macroeconomic outcomes, and local entrepreneurship.