2026 Commodity Outlook and Geopolitical Insights

This document is a commodities research report that outlines the outlook for commodities in 2026, driven by geopolitical factors and supply dynamics. It discusses the impact of the US-China AI and geopolitical power race on commodity markets, noting strong returns in industrial and precious metals in 2025. The report highlights two major structural trends: the ongoing geopolitical competition and the significant energy supply waves affecting the market. It predicts continued strong central bank gold buying, driven by geopolitical risks and diversification strategies. The report also details the implications of China's export restrictions on critical minerals and the potential for supply disruptions in various commodities. Furthermore, it forecasts price movements for copper, aluminum, lithium, and iron ore, emphasizing the role of strategic stockpiling and supply growth driven by Chinese investments. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing commodity prices and market dynamics for the upcoming year.