Summary
This technical report presents workforce projections for the nursing workforce in the United States, covering the years 2023 to 2038. The estimates were generated using the Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM), which assesses the adequacy of the projected workforce supply to meet demand. The report indicates that there will be a national shortage of registered nurses (RNs) until 2038, with an 8% shortage projected for 2028 and a 3% shortage for 2038. Nonmetro areas are expected to experience a higher shortage of RNs compared to metro areas. Additionally, the demand for licensed practical and vocational nurses (LPNs) is projected to grow faster than supply, leading to a significant shortage by 2038. The report also notes that while the supply of nurse practitioners (NPs) is expected to exceed demand, distribution remains a critical issue. The findings highlight geographic maldistribution and varying adequacy of supply across states, with California projected to have the largest RN shortage by 2038.
