Summary
This report presents workforce projections for physician specialties in the United States, covering the period from 2023 to 2038. The projections utilize the Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM) to evaluate the adequacy of the projected physician workforce supply against the anticipated demand. Key findings indicate a projected shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent (FTE) physicians by 2038, with 30 out of 35 specialties expected to face shortages. The report details specific supply and demand estimates for the years 2028, 2033, and 2038, highlighting a consistent shortfall in physician availability. Additionally, it notes that nonmetro areas are likely to experience greater shortages compared to metro areas, with projected adequacy rates of 42% and 95%, respectively. The report also outlines variations in supply adequacy across different specialties, identifying those with the lowest and highest projected adequacy. These projections are crucial for informing health workforce planning and policy decisions.
