Economic Outlook for April 2024

This technical report provides an economic outlook for April 2024, focusing on inflation trends and employment statistics in the United States. It outlines that consumer prices rose unexpectedly in March, primarily due to increases in shelter and energy costs, with overall consumer price index (CPI) inflation reaching 3.5%. Core inflation remained stable at 3.8%, both figures exceeding the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) target of 2%. The report also details job market performance, noting a significant increase of 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 3.8%. Additionally, a survey conducted by Huntington Private Bank indicates that small- and mid-sized businesses are optimistic about their financial outlook, although concerns about workforce challenges and wage growth persist. The report concludes by discussing the implications of persistent inflation and a strong job market on the FOMC's potential rate cuts, highlighting the complexities faced by policymakers in the current economic climate.