Economic Outlook for June 2024

This technical report presents the economic outlook for June 2024, focusing on the recent decisions and projections made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady during its meeting on June 11 and 12, with expectations for one 0.25 percentage point cut in 2024, a change from previous forecasts. The report details the mixed signals from the U.S. economy, highlighting a weaker-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter and signs of a slowing labor market. Despite a good inflation report, the FOMC remains cautious, indicating a need for more evidence of sustained inflation slowing before adjusting monetary policy. Additionally, the report outlines the current state of inflation, noting a flat Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May and persistent housing inflation. The document also discusses projections for economic growth, suggesting below-trend growth in the U.S. for 2024, driven by various economic factors.