Future Macroeconomic Impacts of AI on Labor

This article serves as a technical report discussing the future macroeconomic impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor, productivity, and the historical context of technological advancements. It outlines the uncertainty surrounding AI's effects, ranging from minimal disruption to significant labor displacement. The report emphasizes the historical trend of creative destruction, where technological innovations have transformed economies and job markets. It details how generative AI may initiate a new cycle of creative destruction, complementing human labor rather than replacing it in the short term. The report also presents various scenarios regarding generative AI's impact on labor, including limited-use labor augmentation, broad labor augmentation, and potential labor displacement. Additionally, it discusses the stagnation of total factor productivity growth since the mid-2000s and the role AI could play in reviving productivity growth. The findings are supported by historical data and recent surveys regarding technological advancements and their perceived effects on job creation.