Estimating the Size of the U.S. Pharmaceutical Market

This technical note presents an updated methodology for estimating the size and growth of the U.S. pharmaceutical market based on net manufacturer prices. The IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science has conducted a thorough review of current market dynamics and measurement techniques to enhance the accuracy of spending estimates. The document outlines the complexities of the pharmaceutical market, including the significant impact of rebates and the shift towards specialty medicines, which complicate traditional measurement methods. It emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between list prices and net prices for informed policy discussions. The new approach integrates publicly disclosed information with proprietary data to provide more transparent estimates. The note also discusses the evolving distribution channels in the pharmaceutical sector, which further challenge conventional estimation methods. Updated spending estimates for the years 2015 to 2024 are included, with a commitment to provide future estimates based on the latest data.