U.S. Automotive Sales Forecast for November 2025

This report presents the U.S. automotive sales forecast for November 2025, detailing projected new-vehicle sales figures and market dynamics. Total new-vehicle sales are expected to reach 1,255,900 units, reflecting a 5.2% decrease year over year, with retail sales projected at 1,058,500 units, a decline of 4.8%. The report outlines the impact of the expiration of federal EV tax credits on consumer purchasing behavior, leading to a notable decline in electric vehicle sales. The average transaction price for new vehicles is anticipated to be $46,029, with affordability pressures evident as monthly finance payments reach a record $760. The document also discusses trends in leasing, incentive spending, and the shift in vehicle types sold, with internal combustion engine vehicles expected to dominate retail sales. Additionally, it highlights the challenges faced by the EV market in a post-incentive environment, emphasizing the need for automakers to adapt their strategies to maintain profitability and consumer demand.