Russia-Ukraine Endgame and Future of Europe Analysis

This document is a report that examines the geopolitical implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its potential outcomes for Europe. It outlines various scenarios regarding the future of Ukraine, including the possibility of a negotiated settlement with Russia, and discusses the implications of such outcomes on European security and stability. The report details four potential scenarios for Ukraine's future, drawing parallels with other nations such as South Korea, Israel, Georgia, and Belarus. It emphasizes the importance of security guarantees and military support for Ukraine's sovereignty and democratic trajectory. The document also addresses the broader context of European strategic autonomy in light of shifting U.S. policies and the need for Europe to enhance its defense capabilities. It highlights the urgency of strengthening the European defense industrial base to ensure adequate support for Ukraine and to address rising geopolitical threats. The report concludes with a call for cohesive European action to navigate these challenges effectively.