Residential Energy Transition Scenarios to 2030

This document is a report that outlines the current state and future scenarios of the residential energy transition in Europe, projecting developments up to 2030. It examines the impact of recent geopolitical and economic crises on the adoption of low-carbon technologies by residential customers. The report identifies four macroeconomic scenarios: Green World, Pragmatic Policy, Recessionary Growth, and Geopolitical Crisis, each representing different potential paths for the energy transition. It details how these scenarios affect the growth of various technologies, including solar, storage, heat pumps, and electric vehicle charge points. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the transition within the context of macroeconomic trends and consumer behavior. It also discusses strategic recommendations for energy companies to engage mainstream buyers and enhance customer-centric propositions through technology integration and interoperability. The findings indicate that while challenges exist, there are significant opportunities for growth in the residential energy sector.