K-Shaped Economic Trends Impacting U.S. Consumers

This technical report outlines the K-shaped economic trends affecting U.S. consumers, focusing on disparities in inflation and wealth distribution among different income groups. It presents data indicating that lower-income households are experiencing higher inflation rates compared to their higher-income counterparts, with inflation rates for the lowest-income households being 10-15 basis points above the national average. The report details how the wealth share of middle-income households has declined to just over 25%, while high-income households have seen their wealth share rise to 72%. The document also discusses consumer spending patterns, noting that high-income consumers are the only group showing real spending increases since 2023, while middle- and low-income consumers have seen stagnant or declining spending. The report concludes with an outlook for 2026, predicting marginal growth driven by stable consumption and investment, while also addressing potential risks and uncertainties in the economic landscape.