U.S. Housing Market Analysis and Projections

This technical report presents an analysis of the U.S. housing market as of September 2025, focusing on key trends and projections. It outlines the current tight housing supply in the Midwest and Northeast, while noting an increase in inventory in the Sun Belt region. The report discusses the 'lock-in' effect from low mortgage rates in 2020-2021, which is expected to limit mobility and impact home sales until the end of 2027. Projections indicate a -1.5% change in home prices for 2025, with anticipated declines concentrated in the South and California. The report also highlights the cautious sentiment among homebuilders, leading to a decrease in construction starts. Despite short-term price softness, favorable demographic trends in the Sun Belt are expected to support stronger price growth in 2027 and beyond. The report includes various economic indicators, consumer sentiment surveys, and forecasts regarding home prices and supply dynamics.