State of the 2026 Medicare Advantage Industry

This technical report presents an analysis of the Medicare Advantage industry for the year 2026. It outlines key market dynamics and trends that have emerged due to various pressures, including the Inflation Reduction Act. The report details the financial challenges faced by Medicare plans, including increased financial burdens from risk score models and the consolidation of plans as organizations exit unprofitable markets. It highlights changes in plan offerings, noting a decline in the total number of MA-PD plans and a shift towards serving higher-acuity populations. The report also discusses the impact of plan terminations on beneficiaries, with nearly 3 million required to select new plans. Additionally, it documents trends in medical maximum out-of-pocket costs and Part D deductibles, emphasizing the ongoing adjustments in response to market pressures. The findings are based on data from Milliman's analysis and reflect the current state of the Medicare Advantage landscape as of January 30, 2026.