Medium-Term Forex Outlook Analysis

This technical report provides an analysis of the medium-term forex outlook as of August 29, 2025, focusing on the USD/JPY and EUR/USD currency pairs. The report outlines the recent trends in forex markets, particularly the fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate, which experienced a sharp decline early in the month due to poor U.S. job data, yet showed resilience against anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It discusses the implications of political changes on monetary policy and the potential impact of a new administration on USD's strength. The report also examines the EUR's slight appreciation, attributed to the European Central Bank's stance on interest rates compared to the Fed. Additionally, it highlights the geopolitical factors influencing the EUR outlook and the historical context of U.S. monetary policy during the Nixon and Trump administrations, drawing parallels to current market conditions. The document concludes with a summary table of forecasts for various currency pairs.