Impacts of Climate Change on Global Wheat Production

This white paper examines the effects of climate change on global wheat production and supply chains. It outlines how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are expected to influence wheat yields worldwide, with varying impacts across different regions. The paper details potential positive effects in temperate zones, while highlighting significant negative consequences in sub-tropical countries. It discusses the dual role of carbon dioxide fertilization and technology advancements in wheat production, noting that increasing heat and drought conditions are likely to negate these benefits. The analysis indicates that climate change will lead to greater yield variability and affect price volatility in global wheat markets, which could threaten food security in net-importing countries. Adaptation strategies, including crop breeding and adjusted management practices, are suggested as potential solutions, although these must be tailored to specific locations. The findings may be relevant for stakeholders such as insurance clients and commodity traders concerned with global food security and economic stability.