Summary
This report presents the Global Economic Outlook for the second quarter of 2026, detailing the anticipated impacts of rising commodity prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, on the global economy. The analysis indicates a forecasted slowdown in economic growth for 2026, with expectations of a gradual recovery in 2027 as oil supply stabilizes and prices decline. The report outlines the base case scenario for oil supply and prices, predicting a peak in oil prices around USD 95 per barrel in Q2 2026, followed by a decrease as supply normalizes. Additionally, it discusses the anticipated rise in global inflation rates and the implications for monetary policy across major economies, including the US, Europe, and Japan. The report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding these projections, particularly due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its effects on financial markets and economic stability.
