Equity Market Outlook for 2Q 2025

This document is a research report that outlines the current state and expectations for the U.S. equity market as of the second quarter of 2025. It discusses the impact of recent tariff announcements and the ongoing trade war, indicating that while there is uncertainty, a recession is not the base case scenario. The report details expectations for U.S. GDP growth to remain between 0% and 1% over the next year, with earnings projected to flatline. It highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy, noting that cyclical sectors are strengthening and employment is increasing. The report also provides portfolio considerations, recommending a tilt towards value stocks over growth stocks and suggesting specific sectors and regions for investment. The analysis includes insights on the performance of global markets, particularly in relation to cyclical regions, and discusses potential risks that could impact the U.S. market moving forward.