COVID-19 Situational Awareness and Forecasting in Norway

This report is a technical document that presents results from a mathematical infectious disease model focused on COVID-19 in Norway. It utilizes a metapopulation model (MPM) for situational awareness and short-term forecasting, alongside an individual-based model (IBM) for long-term predictions. The MPM incorporates population structure, mobility data, and an infection transmission model. The report details the national epidemiological situation, including estimates of the effective reproduction number and predictions for new cases and hospitalizations. It also discusses regional discrepancies in estimates and the impact of vaccination on hospital admission risks. The report emphasizes the uncertainties inherent in the model's predictions and the importance of continuously updating model parameters based on new data. Additionally, it includes insights from Telenor mobility data regarding inter-municipality movements and the influx of foreign visitors, which are crucial for understanding the dynamics of the epidemic.