Predicting Performance on Arizona’s Academic Standards Assessment

This technical report presents the findings of a linking study conducted by NWEA to predict student achievement on Arizona’s Academic Standards Assessment (AASA) in grades 3–8 for English language arts (ELA) and mathematics. The study utilizes Spring 2019 data to derive Rasch Unit (RIT) cut scores on the MAP Growth assessments that correspond to AASA performance levels. The report outlines the methodology, including data collection and classification accuracy, and details the results, which include MAP Growth cut scores for various grades. The report emphasizes the importance of identifying students at risk of not meeting state proficiency standards early in the academic year, allowing for timely educational interventions. Additionally, it discusses the correlation between MAP Growth RIT scores and AASA scores, providing evidence of the validity of MAP Growth as a predictor of AASA performance. The linking study has been updated to reflect the latest 2025 NWEA MAP Growth norms.