Projected Impact of the Expiration of Enhanced Premium Tax Credits

This report examines the projected impact of the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits (PTCs) on the individual Affordable Care Act (ACA) market. The analysis indicates that starting in 2026, the expiration of these credits will lead to a significant increase in coverage costs for millions of Americans. Key findings suggest a projected decline of approximately 7.0 million enrollees in the individual ACA market by 2027, with an increase of 5.4 million uninsured individuals. Younger adults, particularly those aged 18-34, are expected to be most affected, with an estimated 2.8 million likely to leave the market. The report details how healthier enrollees are anticipated to exit at a higher rate, resulting in a 5.9% increase in average morbidity. Additionally, average net premiums for enrollees receiving PTCs may rise by 90%, significantly impacting households across various income levels. The findings underscore the potential repercussions of the policy change on healthcare access and affordability.