Summary
This document is a flash note that outlines the expected trends in the oil market for 2024, focusing on the dynamics of supply and demand. It explains that as the energy transition progresses, demand for fossil fuels is anticipated to peak within the decade, with car fuel consumption expected to peak soon. Despite this, total oil consumption is projected to grow through 2028, primarily due to increasing demand for petrochemicals. The note details that global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2024, driven by emerging economies, particularly in Asia. It also highlights the anticipated supply from non-OPEC+ countries and the necessity for OPEC+ to maintain production cuts to support prices. The document addresses potential risks to this scenario, including unexpected supply increases and economic performance in China. Overall, it presents a comprehensive view of the oil market landscape for the upcoming year.
