Q4 2025 Quantitative Perspectives Report on US Private Equity

This document is a Q4 2025 quantitative perspectives report that outlines the current state of the US private equity market amidst a complex economic landscape. It describes the mixed signals from the economy, where consumer and business sentiment remains low despite a rally in equity markets. The report details the resurgence of private equity deal and exit volumes, indicating a potential recovery in the sector after a period of stagnation. It highlights that while core buyout fundamentals are stable, there are concerns regarding credit market conditions, including an increase in distressed exchanges and a rise in payment-in-kind loan structures. The report also notes the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and the implications for future monetary policy. Additionally, it discusses the need for sustained economic growth to maintain the current pace of dealmaking and the importance of effective manager selection for achieving superior buyout performance. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive analysis of the private equity landscape and the factors influencing its trajectory.