Economic Outlook and Currency Forecast for 2025

This technical report presents an economic outlook for the third quarter of 2025, focusing on the performance of the US dollar and its implications on global currencies. It details how the US dollar weakened against various currencies due to increased recession risks and tariff impacts, with a notable decline of 12% against major currencies in the first half of 2025. The report outlines the economic conditions in major economies, including the eurozone, UK, and Japan, highlighting their GDP growth rates and inflation trends. It discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions, including interest rate cuts, and their expected effects on the dollar's value. The report also forecasts potential challenges for the dollar, including slower economic growth and trade tensions. Additionally, it includes projections for exchange rates against currencies like the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar, providing insights into future currency dynamics based on economic indicators and central bank policies.