Summary
This document is a technical report that outlines a comprehensive methodology framework for assessing the economic impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and climate change over a ten-year period. It describes the process of qualitative scenario development, which begins with workshops led by scenario planning experts and contributions from subject matter experts. The report details how qualitative narratives are transformed into quantitative inputs for economic modeling, leading to distinct scenarios that account for various uncertainties. It also discusses baseline growth estimates, which are benchmarked against the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) GDP predictions, and the adjustments made to avoid overlap with AI-driven growth. Additionally, the report addresses the integration of physical climate risk into economic models, highlighting the challenges of capturing these risks in conventional models. The methodology aims to provide a structured approach for organizations to understand potential future economic conditions influenced by AI and climate change.
