Summary
This economic commentary presents an analysis of the recent shift in growth expectations for the US economy. It outlines how the resilience of the economy has led to a significant change in forecasts, moving from a pessimistic outlook to a more optimistic one. Initially, the consensus forecast for 2024 was as low as 0.6%, but it has since increased to 2.4%, driven by better-than-expected economic indicators. The commentary details the performance of three key sectors: services, manufacturing, and construction. The service sector has shown robust growth, while the manufacturing sector is transitioning towards recovery after a downturn. The construction sector has stabilized following a contraction, with key indicators improving. Overall, the commentary suggests that the US economy is stabilizing, with a gradual deceleration expected, and it indicates that a recession is unlikely this year despite potential challenges in household consumption.
