Emerging Markets Outlook Fall 2023

This document is a report on the emerging markets outlook for Fall 2023, authored by Ashna Yarashi-Shah, Portfolio Manager at RBC Global Asset Management. It outlines the performance of emerging-market equities, which returned 4.6% in the eight months ending August 31, 2023, underperforming compared to developed markets. The report details the factors contributing to this underperformance, including the significant impact of China's economic conditions. It also discusses the historical performance cycles of emerging markets and the expectations for future earnings growth, particularly in countries like South Korea and Taiwan. Additionally, the report addresses the effects of global inflation, monetary policy responses, and the challenges posed by U.S. dollar strength on emerging markets. It concludes with insights on the potential shifts in global trade dynamics and supply chains, highlighting opportunities for emerging-market exporters amid rising geopolitical tensions.