Assessment of Taiwan Invasion Risk and Business Preparedness

This technical report by Insikt Group assesses the rising risk of a potential invasion of Taiwan by China, particularly focusing on the period from 2027 onwards. The report outlines that while an invasion is currently deemed unlikely, various political, economic, and military trends suggest that by 2027, China's leadership may consider such an action with reduced costs. It emphasizes the need for businesses operating in or reliant on supply chains in Taiwan and China to prepare contingency plans. The report details the current military capabilities of China, the evolving geopolitical landscape, and the implications for global economic stability. It also discusses the importance of monitoring developments and suggests actions businesses can take to mitigate risks, including diversifying suppliers and conducting vulnerability assessments. The analysis is based on observed behaviors and trends involving China, Taiwan, and the United States, and it highlights the necessity for proactive measures in anticipation of potential disruptions.