Summary
This report presents a new measure of AI displacement risk, termed observed exposure, which combines theoretical capabilities of large language models (LLMs) with real-world usage data. The authors, Maxim Massenkoff and Peter McCrory, outline that while AI is not yet reaching its theoretical potential, occupations with higher observed exposure are projected to experience slower growth through 2034, as indicated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The report details a framework for understanding the labor market impacts of AI, emphasizing the importance of measuring task coverage and its implications for employment. The findings suggest that, despite the rapid diffusion of AI, there has not been a systematic increase in unemployment among highly exposed workers since late 2022. The report also highlights the characteristics of workers in exposed professions, noting demographic trends such as age, gender, education level, and income. Overall, the document aims to establish a foundation for ongoing analysis of AI's economic effects.
