Q2FY25 GDP Growth Estimates and Economic Outlook

This technical report presents initial estimates for Q2FY25 GDP growth, projected at approximately 6.5%. It outlines the recovery trends observed in October, driven by increased rural demand, while also noting a potential dip in urban consumption. The report details various economic indicators, including domestic vehicle sales and agricultural wage growth, which suggest a mixed economic landscape. It highlights the decline in the percentage of leading indicators showing acceleration, dropping to 69% in Q2FY25 from 80% in Q2FY24. The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding policy mistakes that could distort the credit culture and negatively impact long-term economic stability. Additionally, it discusses the implications of rising rural consumer sentiment and the need for careful regulatory actions in the urban sector. The report concludes with an outlook for GDP growth in subsequent quarters, indicating a possible recovery in Q3 and Q4 FY25.