Scotiabank Economic Forecast and Analysis

This document is a technical report that presents Scotiabank's economic forecasts and analysis as of June 11, 2025. It outlines the anticipated economic conditions in Canada and the U.S., emphasizing the potential avoidance of recessions despite signs of slowing growth. The report details the impact of fiscal measures in Canada and the persistent concern of inflation, which is expected to limit the actions of central banks in the near term. The analysis includes discussions on trade policy uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs between the U.S. and China, and their implications for global growth and supply chains. It also highlights the mixed developments in tariff agreements and their potential effects on the U.S. economy, including a forecast for growth rates in both countries. The report concludes with insights into the inflationary dynamics and the challenges faced by the Bank of Canada in setting policy amidst these uncertainties.