Summary
This document is a technical report detailing Scotiabank's economic forecasts for the United States and Canada as of January 15, 2026. It outlines the anticipated economic conditions, including expected GDP growth rates, inflation trends, and the impact of various risks on the economic outlook. The report indicates that U.S. real GDP growth is projected to decrease from approximately 2.1% in 2025 to about 1.9% in 2026, with a slight recovery expected in 2027. Inflation in the U.S. is anticipated to remain elevated due to persistent excess demand and tariff-related pressures. In contrast, Canada is expected to see a modest GDP growth of around 1.5% in 2026, with a potential acceleration to 2% in 2027, supported by improved trade conditions and government spending. The report also discusses the implications of monetary policies from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, highlighting the uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions and trade agreements that could affect both economies.
